Threat assessment refers to the determination of risk posed by specific individuals or groups toward specified targets or institutions. Even prior to the tragic events of September 11, 2001, our research team has performed research addressing the fact that public figures and their staff are at greater risk for unwanted attention from terrorist groups (foreign and domestic) as well as disgruntled constituents. Recent reviews have indicated that the targeted violence research has lacked a systematic appraisal of risk factors among an array of violent and non-violent cases and not included factors typically available to law enforcement professionals encounter.
My research team has performed analyses on a broader array of security incidents involving state and federal government targets to assess characteristics indicative of more problematic and potentially lethal contact (Baumgartner, Scalora, & Plank, 2002; Scalora, Baumgartner, & Zimmerman, et al., 2002-a). While examining characteristics of approach (i.e., individuals likely to engage in threatening or disruptive face-to-face contact) and non-approach cases, we have found that approach cases were significantly less likely to contain articulated threat language prior to or during contacts and were also less likely to involve policy-related grievances (foreign or domestic). Further, approach cases were more likely to include requests for help. Those who engaged in approach behavior were also significantly more likely to have displayed symptoms suggestive of serious mental illness and were more likely to have a criminal record. Those engaging in approach behavior were also more likely to have contacted multiple targets, A significant amount of inquiry, mirroring the general risk assessment literature, has also explored the predictive role of symptoms indicative of mental illness upon such problematic approach behavior toward officials and political institutions (Scalora, Baumgartner, & Zimmerman, et al., 2002-b). For example, we have found that cases demonstrating serious mental illness were more likely to involve a greater number of contacts toward the target as well as the presence of specific or more personalized demands (Scalora, Baumgartner, & Plank, 2003). This finding may suggest that the relationship between mental illness symptomatology and higher risk approach behavior may be most apparent among cases involving motives indicative of greater emotional intensity and more intense psychological disturbance.
Regarding future research in this area, I will continue to investigate a broader range of risk factors that may be considered by mental health and law enforcement professionals who perform threat assessments related to the protection of political figures. I am performing additional research concerning specific subsets of troubling cases such as biological/chemical threats and hoaxes, use of electronic media for threat/harassment as well as cases not initially responsive to intervention.
Representative publications in this area:
Scalora, M. J.,
Baumgartner, J. V., & Plank, G. L. (2003). The
Relationship of Mental Illness to Targeted Contact Behavior Toward
State
Government Agencies and Officials. Behavioral Sciences and the Law,
21,
239-249. pdf
version
Scalora,
M.J., Baumgartner, J. V., Callaway, D., Zimmerman, W., Hatch-Maillette,
M. A.,
Covell, C. N., Palarea, R. E., Krebs, J. A., & Washington, D. O.
(2002). An
epidemiological assessment of problematic contacts to members of
Congress. Journal
of Forensic Sciences, 47, 1360-1364. pdf
version
Scalora,
M.J., Baumgartner, J. V., Callaway, D., Zimmerman, W., Hatch-Maillette,
M. A.,
Covell, C. N., Palarea, R. E., Krebs, J. A., & Washington, D. O.
(2002).
Risk factors for approach behavior toward the U.S. Congress. Journal
of
Threat Assessment, 2, 35-55. pdf
version
Baumgartner,
J.B., Scalora, M.J., &
Plank, G.L. (2001). Case
Characteristics of Threats Toward State Officials Investigated by a
Representative conference presentations in this
area:
Schoeneman,
K. A., Scalora, M. J., Chang,
Grace, H., Bruhn, S. L., DeGue, S.,
Garner, Y., & Zimmerman, W. (2003, July). A comparison of
e-mail versus
letter threat contacts toward legislators. Paper presented at the
Biennial
Conference of the European Psychology-Law Society,
Chang,
G.H., Scalora, M. J., Schoneman,
K. A., Bruhn, S. L., DeGue, S.,
Garner, Y., & Zimmerman, W. (2003, July). Intrusive harassment
and
stalking behavior toward legislators. Paper presented at the
Biennial
Conference of the European Psychology-Law Society,
Scalora, M. J., Baumgartner, J. V., Zimmerman,
W., & Callaway, D. (2002,
March). A large-scale study of
problematic contacts toward the U.S. Congress. Paper presented at
the
American Psychology-Law Society Biennial Conference,
Baumgartner,
J. V., Scalora, M. J.,
& Plank, G. L. (2002, March). The impact of
mental illness symptomatology on characteristics of state government
security
cases. Paper presented at the American Psychology-Law Society
Biennial
Conference,
Newell,
S. P., Scalora, M. J., &
Slawson, H. (2002, March). Reporting
trends for harassing and threatening contacts toward a state legislature.
Poster presented at the American Psychology-Law Society Biennial
Conference,
Scalora, M. J.,
Zimmerman, W. & Stanley, A. (2001, August). Threateners who
impact
multiple jurisdictions. Paper presented at the Association of
Threat
Assessment Professionals Tenth Annual Threat Management Conference,